Mortgage rates ended higher last week by 0.02, not much, could of been worse, as the Federal Reserve indicated that they will continue to raise rates, which indicates they see inflation on the horizon.  And inflation is BAD for mortgage rate!

If you didn't watch my blog from last week, the link is here, I go over rates a little more:  https://goo.gl/SeY3vC

Mortgage rates are still trending up, as last weeks wage inflation numbers was not pretty. This week we also have more wage inflation in the Consumer Price Index or CPI, which will really dictate rates. This will be the most looked at report this week. We also have the US selling debt in the form of Treasury auctions that will play a roll in rates as well. Anticipating rates worsening this week.
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Rates traded in a very narrow channel last week, with them overall improving just slightly. This was mainly due to Trump and Trade. This week it will again be about Trade and Trump's Tweets. Economic reports this week mainly focus on Housing with Starts, Permits and Existing Home Sales.

Mortgage rates up last week, but not as much as they could of been. All eyes are going to be on 3 items this week. 1-Trump summit, if things good good, rates will worsen. 2-Fed Meeting on Wednesday, .25 is baked into rates but it will be the comments that will touch off rate increase or decrease. And 3rd, European and Japanese Reserve Banks will all comment his week as well. It should not be a great week for rates.

WOW, mortgage rates improved over the last few days, fueled by the major drop in Oil, and our old friend Italy is back in the news with a collapsing economy, which has the potential of taking down the EU. And then Trade Wars are back, with the US threatening 25% tariffs on electronics made in China. And lets not forget Israel & Iran trading shots. All of these items and pushing traders into bonds, which will drive down mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates are pretty stuck in a narrow trading band, and really economic news is going to be ignored this week as all eyes are going to focus on Iran and Oil. If Oil takes a spike that will be bad negative for interest rates, because it directly influences inflation, but if there is a hint of a military conflict, then traders will go to bonds, thus balancing out the two trades.

And rates continue to worsen, this will make 2nd week in a row rates have increased, and right now there is no sign of stopping. Lots of inflation news and the 10 year Bond it almost over the 3% mark, which is all trending towards another step towards 5%. REALLY watch Monday's PCE or Personal Consumption Expenditures data, this is a major inflation number and one the Fed will really look at.
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