In this blog: Numbers are starting to point to a recession, Lending guideline changes, Realtor marketing idea.

Home Loan Rates

Rates have finally taken a little pause, albeit for a short period, as investors wait for the March 21^st announcement from the Federal Reserve with regards to Inflation.

And actually, since March 6^th, rates have been FLAT, trading is a SUPER narrow band as the Stock Market can’t figure out if it is up or down, but there is some ominous signs of a pending Recession that have come up in the last couple of weeks, let’s take a look at some numbers.

Last week we say some pretty amazing unemployment numbers, as the US added 313,000 new jobs, and jobs are going to be the KEY to keeping us out of a recession, so watch these job numbers:

• Unemployment, currently sitting at 4.1%
• US Jobs, last week 313,000, if this numbers starts to trend lower, not a good sign.
• Unemployment numbers, this week 226,000 new jobless claims, which is a good number, but if we see it starting to trend to 300,000 or over, not a good sign.
• JOLTS Job report, number of open job positions, currently sitting at 6.312M, if less jobs are available, not a good sign.
   

And let’s not forget some building reports, which is starting to show a switch from a Seller’s Market to a Buyer’s Market:

• New Home Builder confidence dropped from 71 to 70 this month, above 50 is positive.
• Building permits were down 5.7%, which is a concern, because building permits should be up this time of the year.
• New home starts, were down last month 7.0%, another number that should be up this time of the year.
   

This is telling us that the builder are concern, and here locally I am starting to hear of builders offering incentives, like closing costs and showroom credit to try and encourage people to buy their homes.

Moral of this story is, BE PREPARED (that is the Boy Scout in me).   Boise and the Treasure Valley are typically the last to go into a recession and the 1^st to come out. 

There is nothing in the forcast in the near term furture that will cause rates to improve, we are still in a locking mode.

Are lenders starting to see signed of a housing decline?

Fannie Mae announced that over this weekend they are going to add risk layers on loans where the Debt to Income (DTI) Ratio is above 45% but below 49.999%.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on conventional financing opened the door up late last year to higher DTI ratios, and now, because of popularity and potential turn in the economy, they are taking it back.

Borrowers who already have an approval, shouldn’t be affected.

That is the only major lending change this week, we still have lenders going down to a 500 FICO score on FHA/VA and RD.  So that is GREAT!

Realtor Marketing Idea:  Do you TEXT?

Ellie Mae released a study called  “Great TEXTpectations:  Text Messaging Playbook for Sellers”.

Link to article here:  Ellie Mae Article

But the survey found that 29% found it appropriate for Realtors to text Promotions or Special offers, and 26% found it appropriate to wish them a Happy Birthday.

With more and more people ditching computers and their only means of computing is on a Cell Phone or Mobile Devices, marketers, yes Realtors are Marketers, will need to change with the times.

Even the baby boomers are accepting digital media and smart phone technology.

And do you have an smart phone app?  Might be time to think about that as well.   I utilize a smart phone app to keep in touch with clients, allows them to do accurate mortgage calculations, and has a built in scanner, so they can send me documents directly from their phone, you can play with it here: Link to Mortgage Calculator App