Rates
Well rates were VERY flat this week, worsening only by a little, mainly due to the thought of economic default on our debt.
Typically with the shutdown, it would cause rates to decline because all of the people out of work means that less economic growth, bad for stock market but good for Bond market.
But with the looming debt default, which will happen on the 17th, even one seems to be hording cash and gold right now.
Yesterday, the early news with the Treasury Secretary telling Congress that if we default, there would basically be mass chaos and lots of people wouldn’t be getting paid. Most of all the military and social security recipients, which would account for $67 BILLION not being paid on 11/1.
That got Congress and the President talking, and then throughout the day, rates improved.
There is no economic news of real importance being released, because the people who release this news are not working….So bond traders are basically watching CNN and trading on that news.
So my guess, guess is that we will have some resolution over the weekend and into the President’s hands by Monday, atleast regarding the debt ceiling. A 6 week extension, so we can just do this all over again in 6 weeks.
I would also like to point out that 6 weeks in the Thanksgiving Holiday break for Congress.
And regarding the shutdown, I also give that a couple more weeks.
Once the debt ceiling and the shutdown is semi resolved i.e. can has been kicked down the road. Stocks and bonds will again focus on the economy, and that isn’t going to be pretty, so the anticipation is rates will stay where they are or maybe even improve.
Right now too much risk, because if they don’t fix it over the weekend the markets are going to go crazy on Monday, lock them.
Shutdown update:
Still nothing happening with RD and when the government does open up the delays are going to be NUTS!
VA is getting behind if you have to order a Certificate of Edibility manually.
FHA is going ok, but CAIVERS overrides and manually ordering case numbers is pretty much dead.
Conventional’ s are going quite smooth as long as you are a basic w-2 employee and haven’t done anything funky on your tax returns.
I do have some concerns once the government does open up, and all the back log, that will cause some delays.
Date to remember:
10/14: Federal Holiday, Columbus Day, Government agencies and Banks are shut down…but wait, isn’t the government shut down already? Title Closed
11/11: Veterans day, government is shut down, and hopefully isn’t still shut down. Banks closed, Title Close
11/28 Thanksgiving, so that means nothing will get done after 12:00 PM on the 27th, and pretty much noting getting done on the 29th.
12/25: Christmas, so once again noting getting done on the 24th and probably the 26th, and very little on the 27th.