Rates
Whoops, rates sink again, Russia?
Rates sank again this week, playing with the lows of 2014, and if Geopolitics has more to do it, rates could continue to slide!
Let’s look at US economic stuff first:
-Retail Sales 0.0% vs est. of 0.2%, ouch this wasn’t good news for the US, rates improved on this.
-Business inventories down, slightly, but down.
-US sold $28B in US debt, good response.
-Jobless claims up this week 311K vs est. of 305K, and up from 290K last week.
-PPI, or inflation at producer level, 1.7 vs est. of 1.8
-Empire mfg index, huge miss 14.69 vs est. of 20.0
-Consumer Sentiment, huge miss 79.2 vs est. of 82.5
So pretty much all economic news this week was not good for the US economy, and there is even some more hints of…wait for it…QE4????
Yes, some of the talking heads are hinting that the Federal Reserve may be talking about QE4. What it would look like now one knows, but could be a combination of Mortgage Securities and Bond purchase, which would push rates back down into the low 3’s.
Too much of a gamble right now to assume they will, and the Fed hasn’t come out to state anything, just people talking right now.
Russia is playing a little game, one day saying they support peace, next day moving heavy units to the border of Ukraine, one day saying they are going to provide “humanitarian” aid, next day concerns that the aid is guns and ammunition.
So this week we say rates improve about .125 of a point, and once again lenders are keeping rates high on Friday to hedge bets over the weekend.
Continuation of sour economic news, and Russia will continue to put pressure on rates to go down further, I am floating right now.
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