Rates
What a difference a week makes, we go from huge rate increase to a major fall in rates in 1 week, now don’t get me wrong, rates didn’t make up all the ground that the increased by. But we did get a little reprieve from the inevitable march to 6.0%.
Remember, 6% is not a bad rate, keep telling yourselves that.
This week we say traders go from commodities and cash back into the stock and bond market, Stock market is up in the 18250 range today, up from the low of the week of 18060.
And bonds also have rallied this week, causing interest rate to soften a bit. Although most lenders are feeling that this is just a pause and have not adjusted rates accordingly.
Some numbers:
-March Jolts jobs report, # of jobs available, hit 5.0M vs est. of 5.085M, so still lots of jobs for people.
-Retail sales dumped 0.1% vs est. of 0.4%, which caused some of the positive trading for rates.
-Weekly jobless claims 264K vs est. of 275K, a very NICE number.
-Consumer Sentiment 88.6 vs est. of 96.0, quite a bit lower than expected, but still WAY above the 50 base line.
Although a mixed bag of numbers, it still points to the Fed increasing rates this year. The talking heads are still saying December, but my gut feeling is sooner, maybe November.
Nothing out of Greece and Russia this week, although it is expected that Greece will default any day now and leave the European Union, as we get further and further along, Greece’s default will become less and less of an effect on rates as people are already figuring it will happen and position themselves for it.
I am still in a locking mode, just no bad economic news to make rate improve, there will be a few bumps in the road, like last 2 days were you can get lucky, but not worth the risk.
Housing Bubble 2.0???
Just a point of note, the US population can talk themselves into ANYTHING!
It seem we are starting to see some talking heads speak about a new Housing Bubble. There is feeling out there that home prices have risen too much too fast, and it has put people out priced range for homes.
You can see a little of that here in Boise, there is no way you can find a decent home for <150K, yet lots of people feel that there is.
People who purchase the $150K or less are typically the 1st time home buyers, and they need to buy home for the 2nd time home buyers or move up buyers.
But if they can’t afford because wages haven’t kept up with home prices, then that puts an issue at the bottom level, affect the whole food chain.
Now the Treasure Valley has other things going for it, lots of Californian moving in, but you can see other area suffering because home prices are rising.
Not something to be too worried about, yet, but something to watch.
And as interest rates go up, which they are, this will affect home affordability as well.
TRID Training!
My Closing Disclosure/Loan Estimator class is almost approved, estimated next week some time.
Will be worth 2 IREC CE credits!
Watch for upcoming emails on when and where!
And what is TRID, well it is the new disclosures that are coming out August 1st a,d is going to cause some major chaos in our world!
HARP Extended
Looks like Fannie & Freddie are going to extend the Home Affordable Refinance Act, (due to expire 12/31/2015) until 12/31/2016.
This is the loan program that allowed anyone who got a loan prior to 5/31/2009 to refinance without an appraisal and pretty much with unlimited negative equity. And yes there are still quite a few people who have high interest rate loans who can take advantage of this program, more info here: http://www.375loan.com/loan_products/harp/